From having zero vaccines available and knowing little about SARS-CoV-2 at the start of 2020, to having a handful of vaccines authorized for use at the start of 2021, the COVID Vaccine market literally has broken every pharma and global trend.
By the end of 2021, the global manufacturing capacity to generate COVID vaccines will be over 9.2 billion according to our assessment. Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax are set to lead the market space in 2021 by revenue followed by Gamaleya, CureVac, J&J and AstraZeneca. 2021 revenue will be at its peak for the near future (at least until 2026) as it correlates to the pandemic phase of the infection. The pandemic phase is currently a closed market dominated by governments and advance purchase agreements (APAs).
Overall, the COVID vaccine market in 2021 is set to generate $59.62 billion in prepayments and funding to the major players in the market. Pfizer/BioNTech will dominate the market share and will generate $15 billion from its vaccine in 2021. This will be followed by Novavax, Moderna, Gamaleya, CureVac, Sinovac and AstraZeneca.
mRNA vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and CureVac will dominate the market by revenue share in 2021, altogether generating 53% market share. This is a testament to the speed at which they were developed and manufactured, high efficacy rates during clinical trials and subsequent regulatory authorization and distribution. Furthermore, Israeli vaccination efficacy rates with Pfizer/BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine match trial data and so this further confirms the effectiveness of this emerging technology.
Viral vector vaccines from AstraZeneca, J&J and Gameyla will penetrate about 21% of the market by revenue in 2021. Novavax currently has the main recombinant protein vaccine in the space and is expected to generate around 20% market share. Sinovac’s inactivated virus vaccine is forecast to achieve 5% market share.
Advance Purchase Agreements are Driving the COVID Vaccine Market
According to our analysis, the EU has provided $24.19 billion or 40.57% of total in advance purchase agreements (APAs) and funding to pharma companies for the development and supply of COVID vaccines for 2021. This is followed by the US with $10.7 billion or 17.9%, Japan with $7.64 billion (12.8%) and the UK with $2.88 billion or 4.8% market share (at the time of writing).
Pfizer/BioNTech has the most lucrative advance purchase agreements with the EU and the US, as does CureVac with the EU. Moderna’s APAs from both the EU and the USA are also blockbuster deals, and give a strong indication that mRNA vaccines are the powerhouse of the pandemic phase. Japan has also invested strongly in Pfizer’s vaccine, but its launch is put back to at least March 2021 due to extra clinical trials required in this geographic. Novavax APA contracts are also highly significant in the EU, the US and Japan.
Endemic COVID Market Forecast to 2026
COVID vaccines are blockbuster drugs, with all of the initial products on the market in 2021 achieving this status. However, our analysis indicates that from a market worth $59 billion globally in 2021, an initial drop to $33 billion in 2022 will occur due to a number of factors including single booster shots as opposed to two shot vaccines and reduced prices in vaccines due to competition.
From 2022 to 2026, we forecast a rise in vaccine sales from $33.3 billion in 2022 to $47.5 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 9.2%. This is due to an opening up of the market from a closed government dominated space to one in which private healthcare providers and companies can purchase vaccines. There will also be a continued significant need for vaccine boosters in an endemic situation.
mRNA vaccine technology dominates the market in 2021 with 53% share, and over the coming years, we forecast that this trend will be similar. The lions share of the COVID vaccine market between 2022 and 2026 will be from mRNA vaccines.This will be a highly watched market as mRNA vaccines have the advantage of being highly adaptable in a fast turnaround time. So these efficient features will give them a distinct market penetration over the coming years. Viral vector and recombinant protein vaccine revenue will both grow vertically to 2026 and at a higher CAGR than inactivated virus vaccines.
The exponential rise of the COVID Vaccine market has undoubtedly arisen from significant unmet needs globally and generated numerous blockbuster vaccines that are now penetrating the space. SARS-CoV-2 has challenged professionals in R&D, manufacturing, distribution, governments and regulatory bodies and has streamlined channels of new drug production. The COVID vaccine market has revolutionized how pharma and regulatory authorities operate and therefore changed the overall pharma industry indefinitely.
Learn More About the COVID Vaccine Market
For more in-depth information, see our recently published SARS-CoV-2 COVID Vaccine Market Analysis & Forecast to 2026. This report describes the evolution of such a huge market in 8 chapters supported by over 74 tables and figures in over 137 pages. The report focuses on the following:
- An overview of the SARS-CoV2 virus that includes: genetic and structural analysis, mutation and variant characterization
- Global COVID vaccine market, global landscape analysis, vaccine technology breakdown and leading market players
- Advance purchase agreements, marketed/pipeline products, financial analysis and business strategy of the major companies in this space
- Focus on current trends, business environment, pipeline products, clinical trials, and future market forecast for COVID vaccines to 2026
- Clinical trial timelines for major vaccines in the pipeline
- Insight into the challenges faced by stakeholders, particularly manufacturers and governments
- Insight into the emergence of variants and their impact on vaccine effectiveness and the overall market
- Financial market forecast through 2026 with CAGR values of all market segments – vaccine technology, geography (US, EU, UK, Japan, RoW) and major players
- Influence of the molecular diagnostics, PCR testing and POC testing landscapes
- Numbers of vaccine doses available by each manufacturer per annum
- Geographical analysis and challenges within countries with respect to advance purchase agreements and distribution channels